The Law of Unintended Consequences states that the unintended consequences of a particular action will radically overpower its original intent. To date, the Iraq war has proven to be a content-rich case study in this phenomenon, and the latest unintended consequence to rear its ugly head is the growing military conflict between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Since the outset of the Iraq War in 2003- and even since the end of the Gulf War- the Kurds have been given special treatment by the US. In short, the US reliance on, and advocacy for the Kurds has resulted in an emboldened paramilitary that strikes across national borders unchecked.

On Friday, Ankara pulled Turkish troops out of neighboring Iraqi Kurdistan after an eight-day ground offensive designed to flush out PKK camps, shelters, and command centers- the intent was to cripple the PKK’s ability to conduct cross border raids into southern Turkey. (Ankara abruptly recalled its troops a day after US Secretary of Defense Gates called for a quick end to the incursion.) The PKK may have the US to thank for the shortened lifespan of this most recent battle, but the Turks can hold the US government largely responsible for creating this situation in the first place.

Ancient Kurdistan is located in one of the world’s most hotly contested areas and the area has been split between Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Armenia since WWI. Minorities in these nations, some Kurds have fought to form an independent state and the PKK was formed in the 1970s with this goal in mind. Once almost 50,000 strong, the PKK has shrunk considerably to 5,000 fighters today, although recently Kurdish/PKK desire has been less concerned with total independence and more interested in autonomy and cultural freedom. To attain these goals the PKK has repeatedly attacked military, government and civilian targets inside Turkey.

The bottom line on the PKK is that it has been emboldened to attack Turkey due to the tremendous autonomy of the Iraqi Kurds, which is a direct result of American policy in Iraq. In the early days of the 2003 Iraq war, the Pentagon and US military put great importance on the Kurdish Peshmerga by teaming with these fighting Kurds to overthrow Saddam Hussein’s government. This cooperation entitled the Kurds to levels of freedom not given any other part of Iraq during the early years of reconstruction.

In fact, Iraqi Kurdistan has been semi-autonomous since 1970 and de facto since 1991. After the Gulf War ended, the US launched Operation PROVIDE COMFORT to protect the Kurds who were fleeing Saddam’s revenge. As this mission evolved, the US military carved out the semi-independent Kurdish region- Kurdish autonomy was made official 14 years later in the 2005 Iraqi Constitution. The result of Kurdish nationalism and the lack of accountability to any larger power has shown itself in the increased boldness of the PKK to strike in Turkey, which the US and Iraqi governments do little to stop.

All of this is even more alarming when you consider another unintended consequence making world headlines this week: the secession of Kosovo from Serbia. Recognizing a unilateral declaration of independence from a province under U.N. protection is a dangerous precedent to set for future world order. To be sure, the differences between Kosovo and Iraqi Kurdistan are many, but both are areas of ethnic strength for a recently persecuted national minority, both lie within a geographical area of dispute, and both have fighting forces once backed by the United States (the Kosovo Liberation Army and the Peshmerga), and strongholds of self-governance under American protection. Do not for a second believe that Kurds are not watching this situation intently and pondering complete national sovereignty. (Perhaps that would be appropriate, but as with Kosovo, the question is: how do we get there?)

Following the decision to withdraw its troops, Turkey’s prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged the PKK to cease terrorist activities while appealing directly to the Iraqi government: "We should not allow [the PKK]...to poison our ties. Turkey and Iraq must work together to get rid of this problem - there is no other way."

Prime Minister Erdogan should also appeal to President Bush. The US needs to help implement a diplomatic plan that ensures the safety of Turkey and Iraq’s neighbors while simultaneously securing the Kurdish people. Why? Because the US can’t declare war on all the world’s terrorists (the PKK is classified as a terrorist group) and then call in favors for the ones that helped them overthrow Saddam. US policy helped protect the Kurds from the dictator in the late 1990s and must be held accountable for the political and military maneuvers that did so, today giving the PKK the operating space to attack Turkish soldiers and civilians (and Iranians too).

This story is yet another reminder that even the best intentions in war often result in unintended consequences that can completely counteract the original goal. Kurdish paramilitaries are not the first “freedom fighters” or “terrorists” that the US has supported for its own strategic gains and then left to their own devices (Contras, Mujahideen, Afghan warlords, etc.). Supporting these groups and then tacitly excusing them is only inviting a severe backlash- against our transparent policy and more importantly- in the form of military force against these small, struggling enclaves.


Further Reading: NY Times BBC CFR on the PKK